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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However the current race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still